Week in Review: Iran Tensions Fuel Wild Swings (April 25, 2026)

The Big Picture

This was a week defined by whiplash. Markets spent most of their time trying to figure out whether the Iran crisis was over or just beginning. The US Navy seized an Iranian container ship over the weekend while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired on a tanker inside the Strait of Hormuz, instantly reversing the de-escalation narrative that had knocked WTI from the high-$90s to $83.85 by Friday’s close.

Trump prolonged the temporary truce on Tuesday after U.S. plans to hold a second round of peace negotiations with Iran in Pakistan fell apart. The president claimed Iran’s leadership was fractured. He said the ceasefire will remain in place until Iran’s leaders present a unified proposal to end hostilities with Washington and Israel. But don’t expect clarity anytime soon. The situation remains incredibly fluid.

The other major story was Intel’s absolute blowout earnings. The chipmaker achieved a non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.29, up $0.16 year-over-year and a remarkable $0.29 above its own guidance—representing a 1,350% earnings surprise compared to analyst forecasts of $0.02. That’s not a typo. Intel beat by literally 1,350%, sending the stock up over 23% and dragging the entire chip sector higher.

By the Numbers

Here’s how the major assets performed this week:

What Moved Markets

Iran Ceasefire Drama Drives Oil Volatility

Oil was the story this week. WTI collapsed nearly 12% Friday to $83.85 on Iran’s Hormuz reopening claim, then gapped ~6% higher into Monday on the US seizure of the Iranian ship. ING estimates that 13 million barrels per day of supply have been disrupted, a shock comparable in scale to 1974.

The back and forth was exhausting to follow. Iran would hint at diplomacy, oil would fall, then something would go wrong and prices would spike again. Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open to commercial traffic, sending crude prices falling more than 10% on April 17. But that relief didn’t last long.

Intel’s AI Renaissance

The biggest individual stock story was Intel’s transformation from AI laggard to suddenly relevant player. Intel’s Data Center and AI business generated $5.1 billion in revenue, versus expectations of $4.41 billion. The company is finally finding its place in the AI ecosystem, not through flashy GPUs but by powering the unglamorous but essential CPU workloads that AI agents actually need to function.

CEO Lip-Bu Tan captured the moment perfectly: “The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic. This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings.”

Treasury Yields Stuck in Wait-and-See Mode

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.31% on Thursday, reaching a more than one-week high as stalled US-Iran peace efforts and continued tensions in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy prices elevated and inflation risks in focus. Bond traders are caught between geopolitical uncertainty and Fed policy expectations, creating a tug-of-war that’s kept yields range-bound around 4.30%.

Crypto Corner

Bitcoin had a decent week despite the macro noise. The cryptocurrency surpassed $78,000 on Wednesday morning, up 2.2% in 24 hours and 4.3% for the week, following President Donald Trump’s announcement that the Iran truce would be extended indefinitely and Strategy’s purchase of 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion.

The bigger crypto story was institutional buying continuing despite volatility. Spot bitcoin ETFs logged $223.2 million in net inflows on Thursday, led by $167.5 million into BlackRock’s IBIT. That’s eight straight days of inflows, showing institutions are still accumulating on any weakness.

Current Bitcoin price sits at $77,510 after falling by -0.57% in the last 24 hours , but the overall trend remains constructive for patient holders.

The Week Ahead

Looking at the calendar, next week brings some potentially market-moving events:

• Federal Reserve policy meeting (April 29) - No rate changes expected, but Powell’s commentary on geopolitical risks will be closely watched
• More Q1 earnings from major tech names
• Flash PMI data from major economies on Thursday
• Continued monitoring of Iran ceasefire developments

The big question is whether markets can find some stability or if we’re in for more whipsaw action. With oil still elevated and geopolitical tensions unresolved, expect continued volatility.

DCA Check-in

For dollar-cost averaging investors, this week was a perfect reminder why staying disciplined matters. The Iran situation created wild swings that would have been impossible to trade profitably, but consistent investors just kept buying through the noise. Whether markets go up or down next week, your regular investment schedule removes the guesswork and keeps you focused on the long game.

This article is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. See our full disclaimer.